The state of Nordic private equity 2023

Following three years of growth, entry multiples declined to 9.9 in 2023, yet they remain significantly higher than the historical average from 2012 to 2022. Overall, in recent years, multiples have demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of geopolitical turmoil and sharp rises in market interest rates.

For the first time since the onset of the pandemic in 2020, entry multiples in 2023 saw a slight decline across both private equity and other deals in the Nordics, following record-high pricing in 2022. Despite facing sharp interest rate hikes, heightened geopolitical unrest, and rising inflation in 2021 and 2022—factors theoretically expected to depress entry multiples—prices surged. Therefore, the reduction in multiples in 2023 appears less surprising when considering the trends of the past three years. In total, we can still say that the long-term perspectives of PE funds are resilient in uncertain times.

In the period 2013-2019, entry multiples increased by more than 50 percent, showing that the attractiveness of companies outside public markets increased. By comparison, all Nordic transactions saw a 32 percent increase in entry multiples. This indicates increased competition for attractive companies in the private equity market over time, compared to, e.g., the public markets.

Although entry multiples in the private equity market declined in 2023, the drop was even more significant across all Nordic transactions. This has resulted in the smallest disparity in entry multiples between the private equity market and the broader Nordic transactions ever recorded by Argentum. This further underscore the appeal of well-performing companies, even amidst uncertain times.